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A Game Theoretic and Behavioral Economic Analysis on State of the Union Brinkmanship

Authored by Donald L. Willyard

Written 16 Jan. 2019.

               On January 16th, 2019, United States Congresswoman and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) issued a letter to President Donald Trump regarding his upcoming State of the Union address which is scheduled to take place on January 29th. The letter cited, according to Speaker Pelosi, that due to the…

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According to a Bloomberg article, investors can get a lot more from safe, liquid securities than from the S&P 500 Index adjusted for volatility. This is all due to a statement from JPMorgan Asset Management. “Cash isn’t only a safe place to invest, it now offers a better risk-adjusted return than equities.” The firm had a multi-asset strategy team, with $260 billion under management. This upgraded its recommendation on U.S. cash to overweight for 2019. John…

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Apple is experimenting with iPhone marketing strategies. Apple had aggressive trade-in offers that have temporarily reduced the cost of some of its latest iPhones. This is a rare step for a company that’s been raising device prices in recent years to lift revenue and profit. Apple is working on several new products and services. These include: an augmented-reality headset, driverless car technology, and digital offerings like original video. Analysts are…

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INF Treaty

Written by Brynn Slicer and Rebecca Satzberg.

The United States has accused Russia of violating the Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and is threatening to withdraw from the treaty. NATO has also supported the accusations and is asking Russia to immediately stop and follow the treaty again. Russia has denied their breach of treaty, but this is not the first time they have been accused. In 2014 President Obama also accused Russia of violating after Russia allegedly tested a ground-launched…

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Richard Hass, CEO of the Council of the Foreign Affairs in New York, tweeted on Dec 7:  

“In an instant Europe has gone from being the most stable region in the world to anything but. Paris is burning, the Merkel era is ending, Italy is playing a dangerous game of chicken with the EU, Russia is carving up Ukraine, and the UK is consumed by Brexit. History is resuming."

May be the most surprising in all this is the eruption of violent protests in France! Leaving Russia…

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Business Forecasting-Presentations

Last night, 18 Business Forecasting (ECON 3343 & ECON 6635)  students, seen in the picture below, presented their projects in front of their classmates.

There were many interesting data sets, and many good discussions on the forecasting performances of their models. By using Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos 's Forecasting: Principles and Practice textbook (available online h…

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Problems with Cryptocurrency

I chose this article on cryptocurrency, because I like the fact that it’s a different view on it since it’s been so hyped lately, it’s nice to get a different view and why it’s actually not that great. In the article, the man says that bitcoin is never going to be a currency because they are fatally flawed. Last year bitcoin gained a lot of recognition, due to the fact that that the trade was around $20,000. It’s not trading at $4,330 and the cryptocurrency market lost $700 billion since…

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In this quarter India is expecting to have 7.1% GDP about 1.1% less than the previous quarter of this year. The sharp decline was expected, India still managed came ahead of China’s GDP which was about 6.5% over the same period as the world’s fastest growing economy.

This will be a crucial time to watch India’s economy as Indian general elections are due in 2019. The current Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised when they won previous elections that his party will boost Indian economy…

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Just this morning President Trump, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto signed a new trade agreement in Argentina as an attempt to modernize the NAFTA trade agreement. It was during the G-20 Summit when the agreement was signed which included provisions on subjects such as wages and the auto sector. However, the moment was a bit bittersweet for Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau took the opportunity to express that ongoing collaboration and…

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/20/investing/bitcoin-prices-plunging/

Well Everyone, I might as well keep the train going with Cryptocurrency since my knowlegde on the subject matter has been enlightened. There was a reason why I did not give too much information on market caps and coin prices during my presentation on Wednesday. The numbers have been changing and this CNN article is in line with…

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As the trade war continues between the US and China, more and more industries are starting to suffer and/or anticipating losses.  The auto industry is definitely being affected; it is predicted that car prices will go up as a result of the trade war.

Trade Representatives in the US are planning ways to raise Chinese vehicle duties to 40% as this is the tax levied on American-made cars by Beijing.  This tension is not…

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Global Economy May Be Slowing More Than Expected, Lagarde Says

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its GDP projections globally this month. Financial conditions have tightened, especially in emerging markets. Global stocks have slumped and interest rates are rising. They believe the tensions caused by the ongoing trade war between countries could be the result, and they are encouraging countries to put an end to it.

“We have had a good stretch of…

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The article posted by the Financial Times (link below) discusses the weak 3rd quarter that was experienced not just in the US economy, but  across almost  the entire global economy. The article looks at the reasons for this decline in growth and why economies are falling short of projected growth numbers such as growing trade tensions between the U.S. and the rest of the world, nautral disasters in Japan, struggles in the German auto industry, and a general decline in overall consumer…

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How AI Could Impact the Workforce in 10 Years

Artificial Intelligence, or AI, has been fast growing. As AI can help to make business’ and individuals lives easier, some see that it may actual hurt us more than it will help us. People think that it will make is harder for governments to adjust as people do not know the extent of what AI can do. Countries can become leaders in AI and then can become major players in the world economy. One of the main problems that people see is that countries that rely heavily on “working power” are those…

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https://financetrain.com/how-does-cryptocurrency-affect-the-global-economy/

This article goes very well with the group project my group chose to do for Econ 6644. I goes into the various ways cryptocurrency can help and hurt the global economy. For one it knocks out the middleman when it comes to money transfers and storage. When you transfer or hold money at an establishment such…

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With Brexit being so close at just four months away, many people are started to get worried that it will have a negative effect on the UK's economy. The British government released a report detailing the effects Brexit will have and the economic cost associated with it. According to the report, the UK would be worse off under all scenarios. UK Treasury chief Phillip Hammond said, "It is true that the economy will be very slightly smaller, but if we do the deal in the way that the prime…

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