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Gross Domestic Product, Q2 2018

GDP increased 4.2% in the second quarter of 2018, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was 0.1% point more than the “advance” estimate released in July. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent. This was released on August 29, 2018 and the next release will be on September 27, 2018. According to Bloomberg, GDI is just another metric of economic activity produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “advance “estimate of second-quarter GDP that was released in late July had no information on second-quarter GDI, but the “second estimate” of GDP had more information. Jason Furman tweeted about this. He said that “the economy in Q2 wasn't quite as strong as it looks after all”. Jason Furman is a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and he was the final chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. The article states that he did “this to make the current presidential administration look bad”. But Furman wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in the beginning of July saying that the economy had grown at a 2.8% pace in the first quarter, and not the 2% reflected in GDP growth alone. The article continues to talk about the BEA and how it started reporting the GDI-GDP average in 2015. Also, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published in 2013 its own “alternative measure of real U.S. output growth” called “GDPplus.” GDPplus combines GDP and GDI using Kalman Filter. The outcome was a 2.1% economic growth rate for the second quarter, which is lower that the 3.3% in the first quarter. The article concludes with the statement that “the economy was probably growing at an annual rate somewhere between 2.1% and 4.3% in the second quarter. Which is pretty good.”




This article was published on August 30, 2018. 

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