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IMF forecast pointing to recession in 2020

Chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, Mark Zandi, says risk of global recession is awfully high if something doesn’t stick to script. He also mentioned that even if we don’t have a recession over next 12-18 months, we are going to have much weaker economy. His stick to script includes

  1. U.S. President Donald Trump not escalating trade war with China
  2. U.K. finding a resolution to Brexit
  3. Central banks having monetary stimulus

Chief executive of JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, says “Of course there is a recession ahead. What we don’t know is if it is going to happen soon”. Many economists are making their comments on recession. Most of them are pessimistic.

International Monetary Fund’s, in its world economic outlook report, cut global growth forecast to the lowest level in a decade. It blames the slowdown on uncertainty caused by US China trade war and hard Brexit. IMF is calling for urgent need to de-escalate tensions. “Monetary policy cannot be the only game in town and should be coupled with fiscal support where fiscal space is available and where policy is not already too expansionary,” IMF added.

Some of the countries going into brick of recession in 2020:

  • Hong Kong: five months of anti-government protests by citizens affected tourism and retail industry badly, sending Hong Kong into technical recession.
  • U.K.: due to uncertainty caused by no deal Brexit
  • Germany: EU’s largest economy, is on brink of recession due to continuous decline in its manufacturing sector affected by US China trade war and hard Brexit.
  • Italy: EU’s fourth largest economy, was in technical recession for second half of 2018 due to high unemployment rate, huge govt debt and weak productivity.
  • China: worlds second largest economy is slowing, although not nearing recession, amid trade war with US in terms of GDP in 2020.
  • Other highly effecting economies are Turkey, Argentina, Iran, Mexico and Brazil.

 

References:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/16/global-economy-awfully-high-chance-of-economic-recession-moodys-says.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2019/10/28/here-are-the-countries-on-the-brink-of-recession-going-into-2020/#717ec9a43017

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